Quebec Sovereignty Debate Heats Up as Ottawa Plans Response

The Parti Québécois (PQ) has held a lead in provincial polls for nearly two years, and its leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, has promised a referendum on Quebec sovereignty during his first term. This has triggered behind-the-scenes discussions in Ottawa about how the federal government should respond.

Officials from the Prime Minister’s Office, Intergovernmental Affairs, and the Prime Minister’s Quebec liaison have been involved in talks. Sources say the federal government’s aim is not to compete with the PQ but to ensure consistent messaging from elected officials across Canada. While Plamondon currently enjoys a 20-point lead in polls, his victory in the provincial election scheduled for October 2026 is not certain.

A Liberal source emphasized the importance of being proactive. “We’re not going to wait for the possible election of the PQ to get organized and wake up saying, ‘What are we going to do?’” he said. Officials noted that social media influencers have recently promoted the “yes” side, and strategies targeting younger voters could be necessary.

The federal message is expected to focus on showcasing the benefits of the federation and highlighting how Canada positively impacts Quebecers’ lives. At the same time, there is a strong consensus that past mistakes, such as the sponsorship scandal, will not be repeated.

Quebec’s new federal liaison, Joël Lightbound, said his priority is to support economic development and good jobs for Quebecers while emphasizing Canada’s role in promoting Quebec’s culture.

Meanwhile, the federal government has witnessed tensions in public messaging. Industry Minister Mélanie Joly criticized Plamondon for seeking closer ties with the U.S., suggesting this could weaken Quebec. Some Liberals viewed these comments as clumsy, inadvertently elevating Plamondon’s profile nationally.

The Bloc Québécois has seized the moment, claiming the federal government continues to rely on fear-based arguments against sovereignty. Leader Yves-François Blanchet cautioned federalists against manipulating rules if separatists gain power.

Federal Conservatives are also preparing for the possibility of a referendum. Leader Pierre Poilievre has highlighted the importance of recognizing Quebec nationalism as part of Canadian patriotism and suggested a focus on decentralization and respecting Quebec’s jurisdictional powers. Some federalists worry that outside Quebec, support for the province could be weaker than in 1995, when Canadians rallied to keep Quebec in the federation.

The coming years could see a renewed debate over Quebec’s place in Canada, with both federal parties strategizing for a referendum that may reshape the country’s political landscape.