Liberals Lead Conservatives by 13 Points, MPs Break Start

Photo:AP

A brand-new Nanos Research poll shows that Canada’s Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, is ahead by 13 points nationally. They have 45.2% support, while Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are at 30.8%, and the NDP stands at 12.1%.

This news comes as Members of Parliament head to their hometowns for the summer break starting June 30. It gives Canadians some time to talk with their MPs before the next spring session .

Here are the key points from the poll:

• Liberal support has steadily increased since the April election.

• Even though the Conservatives picked up 24 new seats and had a tight race in the popular vote, their support has dropped since then .

• The preferred prime minister question shows Carney with 52.1%, compared to Poilievre’s 23.2%, a 10-point drop from before the election .

Why this matters:

1. Stable Liberal lead – The increase in support gives Carney a stronger mandate during summer debates.

2. Challenge for Conservatives – Poilievre is far behind in both party support and leadership preference. This adds pressure on him to win the planned August 18 byelection, held so he can return to the House of Commons.

3. Voter shifts – Some working-class voters moved toward the NDP, which now holds 12.1% support—a sign that the opposition vote is shifting .

The poll was based on a four-week rolling average with 1,000 Canadians interviewed, averaging about 250 per week. The results are weighted to match Canada’s census data for accuracy .

With MPs out visible in their districts, they’ll gather local feedback and community concerns. It’s expected the poll results will shape what Carney highlights in parliamentary speeches when sessions resume.