Mexico Lawmaker Says Canada-U.S.-Mexico Trade Deals May Be Ending

A senior Mexican lawmaker has warned that the era of big trade deals between Canada, the United States, and Mexico may soon come to an end. He believes the current Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) — known in Mexico as T-MEC — could collapse due to rising nationalism and political tensions in both the U.S. and Mexico.

The warning comes at a time when trade among the three countries has grown more than ever before. However, new nationalist policies by U.S. President Donald Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum have created uncertainty about the future of North American cooperation.

“We Are Entering Uncertain Territory,” Says Martínez Cázares

Mexican lawmaker Germán Martínez Cázares, who once belonged to the ruling Morena party, said the trilateral trade system is under heavy pressure. Speaking to CBC News from Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies, he explained that he expects future trade to happen between two countries at a time rather than all three together.

“We are going to see bilateral agreements between Mexico and Canada, and between Mexico and the United States,” he said. “We are entering into uncertain territory.”

His comments reflect growing concerns that the United States is moving away from the idea of three-country trade agreements and is now focusing on individual deals.

Trump’s Remarks Stir Reactions in Mexico

Shortly after Martínez Cázares spoke, U.S. President Donald Trump added fuel to the fire during a press conference at the White House. Sitting beside Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, Trump said he was open to making “different deals with individual countries” instead of keeping the current three-way trade pact.

These comments immediately made headlines in Mexican newspapers, with many using bold front-page titles suggesting that Trump might scrap CUSMA altogether. The statement followed remarks by U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, who questioned why the U.S. even needed a combined agreement when its trade relationships with Canada and Mexico were “so different.”

This has led many to believe that Washington may prefer separate trade arrangements going forward, which could weaken North American unity built since the signing of NAFTA in 1994.

Mexico and Canada Defend the Agreement

Mexico’s Foreign Affairs Secretary Juan Ramón de la Fuente Ramírez defended the trade pact and reaffirmed the Mexican government’s support for the 2026 review process, which will determine the agreement’s future. Speaking to reporters, he said both Mexico and Canada remain committed to keeping CUSMA alive.

He also mentioned that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney shares this view. Carney recently visited Mexico in September to meet President Claudia Sheinbaum and strengthen bilateral economic cooperation.

“Prime Minister Carney was here not too long ago. He also supports the review and renewal of the trade deal,” de la Fuente said.

Trade Between Canada and Mexico Has Grown Tremendously

Despite the growing political tensions, trade between Canada and Mexico has seen remarkable growth. According to government data, trade between the two countries reached $56 billion in 2024, compared to just $5 billion in 1994, the year NAFTA came into effect.

Today, Mexico is a key player in the North American automotive industry, supplying vehicles and parts to both the U.S. and Canada. Over 60 Canadian car parts companies now operate in Mexico, employing nearly 30,000 Mexican workers.

Mexico also exports machinery, medical equipment, furniture, and agricultural products such as avocados, tomatoes, and guavas to Canada. In return, Canada exports propane, diesel, seed oils, wheat, and petrochemical products to Mexico.

According to Export Development Canada, Mexico has been identified as a “priority market,” and Canadian investment there continues to rise. In 2024, Canada’s direct investment in Mexico reached $46.5 billion, a massive increase from just $3 billion in 1993.

Canadian companies also play a leading role in Mexico’s mining sector and have invested nearly $10 billion in the country’s energy industry.

Canadian Businesses Still See Opportunity

For many Canadian businesses, Mexico remains a promising destination for investment — even if trade rules change.

Etienne Poisson, an Ottawa businessman who founded Mechatronic Design Solutions, said his company is expanding in Mexico to reduce risks from U.S. tariffs. His firm develops automated equipment for factories and currently follows CUSMA standards to avoid trade barriers.

“There’s still fear that things could change,” Poisson said. “But since Mexico is part of the agreement, it’s the next logical place to do business.”

He also said he believes trade between Canada and Mexico will continue, even if CUSMA ends. “I’m optimistic that there will be a free trade agreement between Canada and Mexico,” he added.

Nationalism and Customs Controversy in Mexico

While Mexico’s government says it supports open trade, critics claim that its new customs law could actually make trade harder. The proposed bill aims to modernize customs operations and trace goods more effectively to prevent corruption and tax evasion.

However, opposition members argue that the bill will slow down trade, add extra costs for importers, and violate CUSMA rules by changing procedures while the agreement is still in force.

“You can’t change the rules while a trade agreement is active,” said Deputy Patricia Flores Elizondo, a member of the Citizen’s Movement party.

In response, Deputy Francisco Ávila from the ruling Morena party said the reform is necessary to fight corruption. He accused the opposition of trying to discredit the government’s efforts to make customs more efficient.

“The goal is to reduce corruption, which has long been a problem in customs offices inherited from previous governments,” Ávila said.

Economic Experts Call for Balance

Economists in Mexico say the customs reforms could have benefits if implemented properly. Montserrat Aldave, chief economist at Finame brokerage firm, explained that the new system could help Mexico address U.S. concerns that Chinese goods were being mislabeled as Mexican to avoid tariffs.

“This could actually improve trade relations with both Canada and the U.S.,” Aldave said. “It would make the cross-border process more transparent and secure.”

A Trade Relationship at a Crossroads

The North American trade relationship faces an uncertain future. Since the 1990s, agreements like NAFTA and CUSMA have helped build one of the world’s strongest regional economies. But today, nationalism and protectionist policies are putting that cooperation to the test.

If CUSMA collapses, trade between Canada, the U.S., and Mexico may continue — but under new bilateral deals that could reshape supply chains and investment flows.