A veteran Mexican lawmaker warns that the era of trilateral trade deals between Mexico, Canada, and the U.S. may be ending. Deputy Germán Martínez Cázares, formerly of the ruling Morena party, says the current agreement is under pressure from the nationalist policies of both the U.S. and Mexican governments.
“We are going to see bilateral agreements between Mexico and Canada, between Mexico and the United States,” Martínez Cázares said during a session in Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies. “We are entering into uncertain territory.”
Despite these concerns, the Mexican government continues to publicly support the trilateral trade agreement, known in Canada as CUSMA and in Mexico as T-MEC.
U.S. Signals Possible Changes
The uncertainty deepened when U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside Prime Minister Mark Carney in the Oval Office, hinted at the possibility of negotiating “different deals” with individual countries. Trump’s remarks were widely reported in Mexican media, framed as a potential threat to the trilateral agreement.
Earlier, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer questioned the logic of bundling the three countries into one deal, citing the differences in U.S. relationships with Mexico and Canada.
Mexico Stresses Continuity
President Claudia Sheinbaum emphasized that bilateral discussions could occur under the framework of CUSMA. “Not necessarily all the meetings have to be trilateral,” she said, acknowledging room for flexibility.
Foreign Affairs Secretary Juan Ramón de la Fuente Ramírez reaffirmed Mexico’s commitment to completing the 2026 review process, noting that Carney shares a favorable perspective on the agreement.
Trade Ties and Economic Impact
Mexico was Canada’s third-largest trading partner in 2024, with bilateral trade totaling about $56 billion, up from under $5 billion when NAFTA began in 1994. The automotive industry remains a key component of the North American supply chain, with over 60 Canadian car parts companies operating in Mexico and employing roughly 30,000 people.
Mexico exports machinery, medical equipment, furniture, and produce like avocados and guavas to Canada, while Canada sends propane, diesel, petrochemicals, seed oils, and wheat. Canadian investment in Mexico reached $46.5 billion in 2024, highlighting the stability CUSMA provides for cross-border business.
Ottawa businessman Etienne Poisson, who runs Mechatronic Design Solutions, noted that Mexico is increasingly attractive for expansion amid U.S. tariff threats. “Regardless of what happens to CUSMA, there will be a free trade agreement between Canada and Mexico,” he said.
Controversy Over Customs Law
Martínez Cázares represents Michoacan, a state heavily reliant on agricultural exports. He warned that the Sheinbaum government’s nationalistic policies could undermine free trade.
A proposed overhaul of Mexico’s customs system, designed to combat corruption and improve traceability, has faced opposition and criticism for potentially violating CUSMA rules. Critics argue it could create barriers and additional costs for importers.
Proponents, including Deputy Francisco Arturo Federico Ávila, say the law aims to reduce corruption and align Mexico with U.S. concerns over relabelled Chinese products. Economist Montserrat Aldave added that, if implemented correctly, it could strengthen Mexico’s trade position and enhance cross-border transparency.
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