Conservative Party Debates Pierre Poilievre’s Leadership Ahead of Review Vote

As the Conservative Party of Canada convenes for its national convention later this month, intense focus is on Leader Pierre Poilievre and the upcoming leadership review that will determine whether he continues at the helm. Delegates — the party activists and representatives who will vote on Poilievre’s leadership — are weighing their views amid mixed internal signals about his future.

The leadership review comes after a disappointing outcome for the Conservatives in the last federal election, where they failed to win government despite securing the highest share of the popular vote the party has seen in decades. Poilievre’s favourability ratings have dipped since that election, and he has faced criticism from some quarters over strategy and public appeal. An Angus Reid Institute poll indicated that while a majority of Conservative voters in December still wanted him to stay on as leader, that support has eroded compared to earlier in his tenure.

Despite these challenges, many within the party’s base and strategic circles believe Poilievre remains well positioned to maintain leadership. Some Conservative strategists and members argue that his core support on key issues — such as affordability, immigration and crime — keeps him in good standing with the grassroots delegates who play a decisive role at conventions. They point out that, unlike previous leadership contests, there is no widely recognized alternative leadership candidate building momentum within the party, which reinforces Poilievre’s position.

Party insiders also note that Poilievre has been successful in holding together diverse factions of the Conservative movement, including those on the right flank, giving him an organizational edge heading into the review. Moreover, the leadership rules require only a majority of delegate votes to retain the leadership, and prediction markets and some internal assessments suggest he has strong odds of securing that threshold.

However, critics within and outside the party warn that a narrow endorsement in the review — just over 50 per cent — would be seen as a weak mandate and could fuel ongoing debates about the party’s direction. A stronger result, such as support in the high-70s or 80 per cent range among delegates, is being portrayed by some strategists as essential for Poilievre to claim a renewed and robust leadership mandate.

Analysts also point out that the leadership review will not be based on public opinion polls, but rather on the perspectives of party delegates who tend to be more ideologically engaged and loyal to the conservative movement. This means that the internal dynamics of the party — including how delegates interpret the last election, Poilievre’s messaging and his vision for the future — will be key factors shaping the final outcome.

With the vote just days away at the Calgary convention, Conservatives are preparing for what many describe as a defining moment — one that will clarify both Poilievre’s leadership strength and the party’s path forward as it prepares for the next federal election cycle.