Prime Minister Mark Carney will arrive in Washington on Monday evening, ahead of a scheduled meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House on Tuesday. This will be Carney’s second visit to the Oval Office since becoming prime minister, and it comes at a time of escalating trade friction and political pressure at home.

According to the Prime Minister’s Office, the visit will focus on “shared priorities in a new economic and security relationship between Canada and the U.S.” It follows a month of public consultations by both governments ahead of the first joint review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA).

Trade Talks Stalled Despite Concessions

Canada and the United States missed a self-imposed deadline more than two months ago to strike a trade deal. In an effort to break the deadlock, Carney scrapped a digital services tax on large U.S. technology firms at Trump’s request and rolled back retaliatory tariffs.

Despite these concessions, no breakthrough has emerged. “I’m hoping we can make progress before the review process formally engages,” said Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc last week. “But time will tell us if my optimism is misplaced.”

Trump Escalates Tariffs, Floats ‘51st State’ Idea Again

Trump has intensified his tariff push, targeting Canadian softwood lumber, timber, kitchen cabinets, and furniture exports in addition to longstanding steel and aluminum duties. These measures have further squeezed industries already under strain.

Speaking to U.S. military leaders in Virginia, Trump also revived his controversial suggestion that Canada could become America’s “51st state,” linking it to missile defense cooperation.

“Canada called me a couple of weeks ago. They want to be part of [our missile shield]. To which I said, Well, why don’t you just join our country? Become the 51st state and you get it for free,” Trump said.

Canadian Industries Under Heavy Pressure

The tariffs have had a severe impact on Canadian sectors:

• Steel and Aluminum: Tariffs of up to 50 percent have cut production sharply. Steel output dropped 30 per cent in May alone. Ottawa has since provided a $400-million loan to Algoma Steel to sustain operations and reduce U.S. reliance.

• Lumber: New duties add to existing countervailing and anti-dumping penalties, hitting producers in Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia.

• Auto Sector: Automakers face uncertainty as supply chains remain vulnerable to tariff hikes.

Carney has promised targeted relief but insists Canada will not accept a “baseline tariff deal” similar to agreements signed by the U.K. and European Union.

Political Pressure Builds in Ottawa

Opposition parties have seized on the lack of progress. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre accused Carney of overpromising and underdelivering, noting that he pledged to secure an agreement with the U.S. by July 21.

“Where is the win?” Poilievre asked. “It has been a gigantic bait-and-switch. We were sold this brilliant negotiator. Where is it?”

Carney initially campaigned on standing up to Trump and pursuing a large-scale trade and security deal. In recent months, however, he has pivoted toward negotiating smaller, sector-specific agreements to secure tariff relief where possible.

What to Expect from the White House Meeting

The Tuesday meeting provides Carney with a chance to make progress in person after months of stalled negotiations. It also comes at a critical moment, with industries under strain, CUSMA’s review process looming, and political stakes rising at home.

Observers say both sides may announce incremental agreements, though a sweeping deal remains unlikely. Statements from both leaders are expected after the talks.

Carney’s Washington visit begins Monday night, with the White House meeting set for Tuesday. Trade relief for Canadian industries, missile defense discussions, and Trump’s renewed “51st state” remark are expected to dominate the agenda.